By the time Enzo Maresca was picking the bones out of his first Premier League defeat in charge of Manchester City, the virtual table showed he had company at the top. City and Arsenal are now only separated by goal difference. They might be evenly matched, or end up separated by 19 places.
Either the division has a title race, or it doesn’t. It is an extraordinary variable that depends on more than form. Yet it is safe to say that there are many, whether at Premier League headquarters or elsewhere, who would prefer it if City do not procure the most points. It would seem strange, to put it mildly, if the title was decided by deductions, adjudicated with the aid of asterisks.
Aston Villa indicated there are other reasons why City may not end up at the summit, even if they succeed with their appeal against the 114 guilty verdicts the independent panel handed out. After Maresca’s record start, becoming the first manager to win each of his opening seven Premier League games with a club, a setback reduced the chances City will distance the rest.
Those seven victories had camouflaged some failings. There are other reasons why City may not pile up more points than anyone else. Some are psychological: City’s immediate response to the guilty verdicts was one of defiance, the best half-hour of their top-flight campaign coming in a 3-0 win at Anfield. Many a side has been galvanised by adversity over the years. Quite a few, however, have struggled to sustain that over an extended period.
And if, perhaps in January, City are handed a swingeing punishment, the points may lose their meaning. There could be a sense of futility, players contemplating futures elsewhere and losing the bond a team possesses. If so, it would be understandable if results are affected.
But there are footballing factors, too. In all competitions, City have lost three times: to Arsenal (in the Community Shield, if you’re so inclined to count that), Paris Saint-Germain and now Villa. To put it another way, they have been beaten by three of the finest sides they will face. As they encounter another of them, Brighton, twice this week, it will be a barometer of their on-field prospects. November’s trip to Arsenal is another examination if they actually are the outstanding team in the country.
One interpretation of their start is that they have won at Anfield and Old Trafford already. Another is that they have only beaten two promoted clubs – Coventry and Ipswich – and one other club who had made a slow start, in Bournemouth, by one-goal margins. Liverpool apart, their victims started the weekend in 10th, 13th, 16th, 17th, 19th and 20th.
Villa’s victory showed some of City’s tactical issues, but also their defensive ones. Maresca rued conceding to transitions, which sometimes could be a problem for Pep Guardiola. But City can end up more open in the centre of the pitch under the Italian, after Rodri and Bernardo Silva left and when Elliot Anderson can be left to anchor the midfield on his own. Maresca may have erred in not starting with Ayyoub Bouaddi, a natural partner for the £116m man, for one of the most demanding away games, and against one of the quickest teams.
But Maresca has often talked about balance and the search for it continues, with some of the questions revolving around Enzo Fernandez’s role. That he has substituted Rayan Cherki four times at half-time is an indication a maverick can frustrate him, even if he attributed his withdrawal at Villa Park to the Frenchman’s booking.
He fielded a back four of central defenders against Villa; it did not give enough solidity. The sense is that Maresca’s preferred formula consists of a trio who are centre-backs by trade, augmented by either Matheus Nunes on the right or Nico O’Reilly on the left.
But defensively City have not been robust enough. That was apparent when Sunderland’s Brian Brobbey scored a hat-trick at the Etihad Stadium or when Gianluigi Donnarumma needed to make special saves to secure a win over Coventry. There have been too many mistakes: Donnarumma was culpable for Nicolas Jackson’s second goal on Saturday, Marc Guehi for the first, to follow twin errors against Ipswich a week earlier, and his form should be a cause for concern. Ruben Dias struggled against Brobbey. Abdukodir Khusanov’s displays have been mixed.
There is, of course, a more prosaic reason why a title tilt could be derailed. City entered the 2024-25 campaign with no like-for-like alternative, let alone of the same quality, for either Rodri or Erling Haaland and then lost the defensive midfielder to a cruciate ligament injury. Now the Norwegian is the lone specialist striker and even the man primed to deputise, Antoine Semenyo, is injured. Take Haaland’s goals away and City would have nine points fewer.
As they linger in limbo, they may end up losing rather more points than that. But there remains a question if, over the 38 games, they will take the most and the sense it could feel awkward if they do.
